Conflict Analyses

These Conflict Analysis reports synthesise findings and recommendations from the literature on the drivers of conflict and peace in specific contexts and the roles of domestic, regional and international actors. They usually draw on between 15-25 days of desk-based research, and they are peer reviewed by external experts.

The Central African Republic crisis

Since March 2013, the Central African Republic (CAR) has been experiencing violent sectarian conflict. The conflict initially began between two well-defined rival groups that became increasingly fragmented, with competing agendas and interests. Further, the current transitional government lacks the capacity and political will to enforce any real political reforms. A number ...» more

Conflict analysis of Muslim Mindanao

The Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) in the Philippines was founded in 1989. It consists of five provinces – Maguindanao, Lanao del Sur, Basilan, Sulu and Tawi-Tawi. Conflict between Moro groups seeking an independent state in Mindanao, and the Government of the Philippines (GPH) has been ongoing for four decades. After numerous attempts to resolve the conflicts, a ...» more

The effects of Russian intervention in the Syria crisis

The linked Russian political-military initiative in Syria – with a bombing campaign from 30 September, support of Iranian-Hezbollah-Syrian military ground offensives, and convening of international conferences to try and secure the Assad regime – has changed the dynamics of the 56-month Syrian conflict. The effects of the intervention are significant, and are both ...» more

Conflict analysis of Kenya

Kenya is a large multi-ethnic country, with over 40 different ethnic groups and many overlapping conflicts. It has high levels of sexual and gender-based violence and of intercommunal violence; low levels of persistent violence; cycles of election-related violence; and increasing numbers of terrorist attacks. The incidence, gravity and intensity of violence have all increased ...» more

Contemporary conflict analysis of Iraq

This paper notes that conflict in Iraq has become increasingly sectarian, and has affected minorities the most. Among its findings it highlights roots of the violence: Sunni alienation following the ‘sectarianisation’ of the political system; feelings of insecurity as a result of sectarian militias and the increasingly Shia make-up of the Iraqi Security Forces; and structural ...» more

Conflict analysis of Liberia

It is over ten years since Liberia’s final peace agreement was signed in 2003, putting an end to 14 years of violent civil wars. This paper finds that current levels of overt conflict in Liberia are relatively low, and there has been no large-scale violence since the end of the second war. However, it also finds that many of the root causes and grievances that led to the wars ...» more

Conflict analysis of Algeria

Local and regional protests about a diverse range of socio-economic issues have been taking place in Algeria since 2011. However, much of the literature suggests that Algeria was not greatly affected by the protests emerging from the 'Arab Spring'. The Algerian government has succeeded in preventing protests from escalating to the levels witnessed in neighbouring countries ...» more

Conflict analysis of Mauritania

Mauritania is a large, mostly desert territory, populated by 3.2 million inhabitants and with a history of military rule and regime change through coup d’états. It has a history of inter-ethnic conflict and politicisation of identity with a notable border dispute in 1989 between Mauritania and Senegal resulting in violence and the deportation of non-Arabic speaking (i.e. black) ...» more

Conflict analysis of Morocco

Since the onset of the Arab Spring, Morocco has experienced protests about a diverse range of economic, political, and social issues. King Mohammed VI responded rapidly to the early protests, implementing a new constitution in 2011. However much of the literature suggests that, to date, these reforms have had a limited impact. Moreover, there have been rising levels of unrest ...» more

Conflict analysis of Tunisia

The revolution in Tunisia in 2011 – the first political upheaval of what became the ‘Arab Spring’ – marked the end of over five decades of authoritarian rule, first by post-colonial leader Habib Bourguiba and then by Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali. The country’s first democratic elections, held in March 2011, produced a coalition government comprising of the dominant Tunisian Islamic ...» more

State fragility in the Central African Republic: What prompted the 2013 coup?

In March 2013 a coalition of rebel groups – Séléka – led a violent coup in the Central African Republic (CAR), ousting the former President François Bozizé from ten years in power and instating the new President Michel Djotodia. CAR is now in the midst of a deepening humanitarian and economic crisis, compounded by violence and widespread human rights violations. This rapid ...» more

Conflict drivers, international responses, and the outlook for peace in Mali: A literature review

This literature review aims to reflect relevant empirical and policy analysis together with more up-to-date commentary on the situation in Mali, as of January 2013. The conflict in Mali is highly complex and fluid: the situation with regards to the various groups engaged in conflict is developing on a daily basis, as are the responses from local and international ...» more